The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on Orbital Debris Environment

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. Starting from the launch of the first artificial satellite in 1957, space borne technology has become an indispensable part of our lives. More than 6,000 satellites have been launched into Earth orbit. Though the annual number of satellites launched stayed flat for many decades, the trend has recently changed. The satellite market has been undergoing a major evolution with new space companies replacing the traditional approach of deploying a few large, complex and costly satellites with an approach to use a multitude of smaller, less complex and cheaper satellites. This new approach creates a sharp increase in the number of satellites and so the historic trends are no longer representative. As a foundation for this study, a scenario for satellite deployments based on the publicly announced future satellite missions has been developed. These constellation-deploying companies include, but are not limited to, Blacksky, CICERO, EROS, Landmapper, Leosat, Northstar, O3b, OmniEarth, OneWeb, Orbcomm, OuterNet, PlanetIQ, Planet Labs, Radarsat, RapidEye Next Generation, Sentinel, Skybox, SpaceX, and Spire. Information such as the annual number of launches, the number of orbital planes to be used by the constellation, as well as apogee, perigee, inclination, spacecraft mass and area were included or approximated. Besides the production of satellites, a widespread ongoing effort to enhance orbital injection capabilities will allow delivery of more spacecraft more accurately into Earth orbits. A long list of companies such as Microcosm, Rocket Lab, Firefly Space Systems, Sierra Nevada Corporation and Arca Space Corporation are developing new launch vehicles dedicated for small satellites. There are other projects which intend to develop interstages with propulsive capabilities which will allow the deployment of satellites into their desired orbits beyond the restrictions of the launch vehicle used. These near future orbital injection technologies are also covered in the developed scenario. Using the above-mentioned background information, this study aims to examine how the orbital debris environment will be affected from the new dynamics of the emerging space markets. We developed a simulation tool that is capable of propagating the objects in a given deployment scenario with variable-sized time-steps as small as one second. Over the course of the run, the software also detects collisions; additional debris objects are then created according to the NASA breakup model and are fed back into the simulation framework. Examining the simulation results, the total number of particles to accumulate in different orbits can be monitored and the number of conjunctions can be tracked to assess the collision risks. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation on the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is authors hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs

State of the Art: Small Spacecraft Technology

This report provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of small spacecraft technology, with particular emphasis placed on the state-of-the-art of CubeSat-related technology. It was first commissioned by NASAs Small Spacecraft Technology Program (SSTP) in mid-2013 in response to the rapid growth in interest in using small spacecraft for many types of missions in Earth orbit and beyond, and was revised in mid-2015 and 2018. This work was funded by the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD). For the sake of this assessment, small spacecraft are defined to be spacecraft with a mass less than 180 kg. This report provides a summary of the state-of-the-art for each of the following small spacecraft technology domains: Complete Spacecraft, Power, Propulsion, Guidance Navigation and Control, Structures, Materials and Mechanisms, Thermal Control, Command and Data Handling, Communications, Integration, Launch and Deployment, Ground Data Systems and Operations, and Passive Deorbit Devices